I had an idle though recently about the number of people who have been British Prime Minister in my lifetime, and how that compares to people older or younger than me.
I was born in 1984, when Margaret Thatcher (urgh) was Prime Minister. She was first elected in 1979, and was around until 1990, when John Major took over. Then in 1997, Tony Blair came to power for 10 years, followed by Gordon Brown, until the general election in 2010 which saw David Cameron take over.
Following the Brexit referendum, Cameron stepped aside to allow Theresa May to take over for 3 years, and then we had 3 years of Boris Johnson. In 2022, we had Liz Truss for all of six weeks before Rishi Sunak took over, and then when Labour won last year’s General Election, Kier Starmer took over. And that’s where we are now.
So, in my 40 years of being alive, I’ve known 10 British Prime Ministers. A simple mean average of a new Prime Minister every four years then.
However, let’s compare that to our nine-year-old, born whilst David Cameron was Prime Minister. In their lifetime, there have been six Prime Ministers so far, for an average term of 18 months.
What about my Dad, who is in his 80s? He’s known 19 Prime Ministers (I’m counting Winston Churchill’s non-consecutive terms as one here), so an average of four and a bit years.
The point I’m trying to make, I suppose, is that historically Prime Ministers have lasted around four years on average, until very recently. Sure, Liz Truss only having been in power for six weeks has skewed things quite a bit. But Rishi Sunak also had a comparatively short term, and Gordon Brown, Theresa May and Boris Johnsons’ terms were all around the three year mark. The political upheaval we’ve seen in Britain in recent years is therefore unusual.
As for how long Keir Starmer will remain in power? I would be surprised if he’s not still Prime Minister in 2029, which is when the next election is due. That would make five years, and so would push the average up a bit. Whilst last summer, I was confident that Labour would win the 2029 general election, I’m not so confident now.