As per the past couple of years, I try to channel my inner Mystic Meg, and come up with some predictions for the new year. Last year’s were mostly on target, although some were rather low-ball predictions.
Bradford City will win promotion
I don’t really follow football or support a team, but as my employer currently sponsors their stadium, I check up on how Bradford City AFC are doing on a regular basis. And at the moment, they’re doing quite well; I’m writing this ahead of time but they’re currently third in League One. If they managed to finish the season as one of the top two teams, or win the playoffs, then they’ll win promotion to the Championship, having only been promoted to League One last season. The last time they were in the second tier of English football was in 2003-4.
A big AI firm will go bust
There have been warning signs that the AI ‘bubble’ will burst soon. I certainly think that a ‘market correction’ is likely, and one of the big AI firms will go bust. Indeed, there’s a web site called Pop The Bubble which asks Google Gemini each day when the bubble will burst. At one point, on the 19th December, it predicted the bubble would burst the very next day, but more recently it has revised its projections to some time around September.
Certainly OpenAI, probably the best known AI company, is in trouble – its operating costs far exceed its income. So much so that answers may start including sponsored content. I wouldn’t be surprised that it reaches a point where it runs out of money and its investors get cold feet. That could happen this year, but we’ll see.
There will be some kind of ceasefire in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine will have been running for four years by next month, and both sides have suffered heavy losses. The BBC estimate that 160,000 Russians have been killed, and the real total may be double that. Overall, something like half a million people have lost their lives in the war across both sides.
What the ceasefire will look like remains to be seen. I see Russia as very much the aggressor here, and rewarding it with territory that was part of Ukraine doesn’t seem just, in my mind. Certainly, Ukraine hasn’t wanted to cede territory, but to stop the war it may have to – at least, for now.
The World Cup will be overshadowed by politics
Hosting of this year’s Men’s Association Football World Cup is split between Mexico, Canada and the USA this year, with the USA hosting the majority of games. However, I expect the USA’s new immigration rules for people applying for ESTA could backfire. I expect a tense political situation as various celebrities or politicians find themselves turned away at US airports or denied visas, and the diplomatic fallout that this could create.
I’m pleased that Scotland qualified as well as England this time, and Wales and the Republic of Ireland are potentially still in the running. I doubt I’ll be watching the matches – as mentioned, football isn’t really my thing and the time difference means that some of the matches are likely to be late at night UK time.
Rolled over predictions
I’m also going to roll over a couple of previous predictions:
- Labour will do poorly in local elections
- Twitter/X won’t become an ‘everything app’
As a member of the Labour party, I hope it turns a corner this year, but I doubt it’ll manage it in time for the local elections in late spring. As for Twitter/X, I expect it’ll stagnate and Elon Musk will continue to be a terrible person, but it’ll neither shut down, be sold off or launch any major new features.
